Intuitive probability is driven by imaginability: the easier something is to visualize, the likelier it seems. This entraps us into what Tversky and Kahneman call the conjunction fallacy in which a conjunction is more intuitively probable than either of its elements #StevenPinker

-

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

We humans are unhappy in large part because we are insatiable [...] Rather than feeling satisfied, we feel a bit bored, and in response to this boredom, we go on to form new, even grander desires. #WilliamBIrvine

-
We humans are unhappy in large part because we are insatiable [...] Rather than feeling satisfied, we feel a bit bored, and in response to this boredom, we go on to form new, even grander desires. #WilliamBIrvine — English Quotes (@english_quotes) Nov 26, 2023
Read more

If a parent or carer is warm, consistent, attuned, steady and kind, the child will thrive. It will have confidence in itself and in the world. It will know how to love and will have the courage to start relationships, secure [and calmly complain when neglected] #TheSchoolOfLife

-
If a parent or carer is warm, consistent, attuned, steady and kind, the child will thrive. It will have confidence in itself and in the world. It will know how to love and will have the courage to start relationships, secure [and calmly complain when neglected] #TheSchoolOfLife — English Quotes (@english_quotes) Sep 8, 2024
Read more